Dariush vs Olivera
By: NathanIn the last month or so, things have been quiet on the MMA front. The Fight Night and Apex cards that followed the disappointing UFC 288 in early May could best be described as lackluster. Despite a few highlight reel knockouts, there hasn't been enough to overcome what is now feeling like quite the dry spell in the sport. However, there is hope on the horizon. July is shaping up to be potentially one of the most exciting months the UFC has seen in some time, starting out with a fantastic UFC 290, and finishing with one of the most stacked cards I have ever seen the company put together in UFC 291.
As tantalizing at those cards are, it doesn't help that fans are still staring down the barrel of another slow month. In what must be some effort by the UFC to balance out the excellent matchmaking and excitement in July, they will be rolling out what must be the one of the worst cards of the year with UFC 289, and 3 rather bleak looking Fight Night events. Despite all this negativity, there is one spot of good news: an absolute gem of a fight that I personally have been looking forward to for some time. The co main fight of UFC 289, the battle for the #1 lightweight contender spot: Charles Olivera vs Beneil Dariush.
In order to properly set up this fight, we must first visit the former champion of the 155 division: Charles Olivera. Looking back, it is rather remarkable how quickly Olivera rose to stardom. A longtime veteran of the sport, Charles amassed a record of 30 wins and 8 losses going into a vacant title shot against the former Bellator champion turned UFC contender, Michael Chandler. Olivera was coming off a one-sided beatdown of a washed Tony Ferguson (and an 8 fight win streak to boot), while Chandler had won his UFC debut fight against Dan Hooker with a dynamic knockout.
Charles survived a wild first round that saw Chandler outstrike and outscamble him, but was able to quickly turn the tables with an incredible left hook early in the second round that started the beginning of the end. Following the capture of his first UFC title, Olivera then went on to submit Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaejthe, two of the most talented strikers in the division. It was an incredible run that catapulted him to the top of the sport, but it was not one that would last long. In his very next fight, Charles was completely dominated by Islam Makhachev, the prized student of the division's former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.
While the Makhachev fight was certainly expected to be a difficult and potentially losable fight for Olivera, I felt the most shocking moments came from watching him get thoroughly outstruck by an opponent that was revered not for their striking, but their wrestling acumen. Charles was always there to be hit in his previous fights (and he certainly absorbed his fair share of punishment), but he had always shown incredible resiliency and another level to his striking. The one-sidedness of the defeat has apparently affected Olivera greatly, who has since openly questioned his drive and his future in the sport. Whatever conflicting thoughts he might have had after that defeat, that hasn't stopped Olivera from attempting to retain his #1 contender spot against another weathered veteran: Beneil Dariush.
It is interesting to compare the similarities between Dariush and Olivera. Dariush has also been around a long time, holding a 22-4 record over a 9-year career. Additionally, he is currently riding an 8 fight win streak going into the biggest fight of his career, just as Olivera did against Chandler. Stylistically, both men have also retooled and reworked their striking games, resulting in some devastating finishes from each over the last few years.
One significant difference, however, is their current position in the standings, and in their career. Olivera is currently fighting to regain the belt he lost. If he falters here, a rematch against Makhachev seems very unlikely. Conversely, Dariush is not just seeking the right to his first title shot, but also to prove that he is a legitimate contender in this stacked division. In 2022, he was forced to withdraw from a scheduled fight against Makhachev, who then went on to coast to the title. Despite that setback, he immediately picked up an impressive win as an underdog against rising contender Mateusz Gamrot. This fight may very well represent the last chance that each man has at a title shot. A loss here would prove a return to title contention very difficult, considering the immense competition at 155 (and the possible full-time arrival of Alexander Volkanovski). Olivera and Dariush may be only 33 and 34 respectively, but both have been around a long time in a sport where longevity is rare. There is a real chance that one or both could fall off in just a few short fights, so the urgency to win now (and win spectacularly) is palpable.
I will admit, this fight has been difficult to predict. I am a fan of both and have enjoyed watching their journeys up until this point. However, I believe that Dariush will be the one to win the day. Dariush appears to be the ascending, hungrier fighter, and has shown a willingness to evolve his game. Over the course of his 8 fight win streak, he has added more powerful and more concise striking to his already strong wrestling background. Like Islam, Dariush should be able to use the threat of a takedown to pressure Olivera while setting up his striking. If he lands flush, this fight could be over in a flash. Olivera is certainly no pushover though, and certainly has the tools to win this fight. Avoiding Darisuh's power is absolutely the key to his success, and if he can do that while also coming into the cage with the correct mindset, he presents a fearsome knockout and submission threat should Dariush get sloppy or careless.
Prediction: Dariush TKO 3